Default Cycle

The realized credit environment + how tight bank lending standards currently are.

How Business-loan charge-off rate (CORBLACBS) + delinquency rate (DRBLACBS), %, left axis; SLOOS net-% of banks tightening C&I standards (DRTSCILM large/mid, DRTSCIS small), right axis.Source FRED (Fed)

How to read Rising charge-offs/delinquencies = realized distress building; positive/rising SLOOS = banks currently tightening credit access.

🚨 these are BANK-LOAN distress + lending standards, NOT bond-issuer defaults (the issuer default rate is paid). Strictly present-state/realized — 'banks are currently tightening,' NEVER 'defaults will rise.'