Weekly Market Graphs

Index Overview: 4 out of 6 indexes declined this week, with Japan – Nikkei 225 (-1.91%) falling the most. Europe (STOXX EU 600) — reached 29th ATH this year on Wednesday. US (S&P 500) — reached 44th ATH this year on Thursday. UK (FTSE 100) — reached 35th ATH this year on Wednesday. Japan (Nikkei 225) — reached 17th ATH this year on Thursday.

Index Outliers: India - Nifty 50 (+2.12%), Europe - STOXX EU 600 (+0.61%) managed to gain despite the overall decline.

Last Week Dynamic: 8 out of 11 sectors fell this week, and Financials (-4.99%) was the worst performer.

Outliers: Real Estate (+0.68%), Consumer Defensive (+0.20%), Communication Services (+0.16%) managed to gain despite the overall decline.

Yields Overview: Long-term yields declined, while short-end held steady, with 5Y falling the most (-19.0bps).

Curve Shape: The curve shows mixed slope behavior

Key Spreads: Positive 10Y–2Y spread widening (+4.0bps) to 0.58%. Negative 10Y–3M spread widening (-14.0bps) to -0.03%.

FX Overview: 3 out of 5 major currencies advanced versus the USD this week, with the JPY strengthening the most (+0.95%).

Outliers: AUD (-0.54%), CAD (-0.25%) lost ground despite broader strength.

North America Summary: North America favored Quality (+1.13%) the most, while Investment (-2.80%) was the weakest.

Europe Summary: In Europe Value (+2.73%) returns were the highest & Quality (-1.58%) lagged the most.

Japan Summary: The strongest strategy in Japan was Value (+4.71%), the drag came from Quality (-2.99%).

Winners: Gold topped the leaderboard last week (1W +6.60%). It also dominates since year start (YTD +61.12%) and over three months (3M +27.15%).

Losers: The weakest performer last week was Nat Gas (1W -7.66%). Nat Gas remains the worst performer for three months (3M -15.56%). Brent has been the lowest returning asset over year start (YTD -18.40%).

10Y Yield & Coupon: If a 10Y U.S. Treasury bond were issued today with a market-aligned coupon of 4.000%, it would yield 4.05%.

10Y Duration and Convexity: Its price sensitivity would reflect a modified duration of 8.3 years and convexity of 78.81.

10Y Rate Sensitivity: This implies a price change of approximately +0.8% to -0.8% for a 0.1% (10 bps) shift in rates, based on current spot yields.

10Y–2Y Spread: Positive 10Y–2Y spread widening (+1bps) to 0.55%.

10Y–3M Spread: Positive 10Y–3M spread narrowing (-9bps) to 0.02%.

10Y Exposure Increase: Dealer led the 10Y exposure increases across 1W +28.0%, 1M +11.6%, 3M +451.8%..

10Y Exposure Decrease: Lev Fund led 10Y exposure trim across 1W -8.8% and 1M -12.5%..

Current Year Maturities: The U.S. has 5.4T USD of debt maturing in year 2025. With the following breakdown: Bills (<1Y): 86%, Notes (2–10Y): 12%, FRNs: 1%, TIPS: 1%.

Next 5 Years Outlook: Between 2026 and 2030, 14.9T USD of debt is set to mature (about 3.0T per year). With the peak of 5.1T in 2026, where 76% is Notes (2–10Y).

Long-Term Maturities: Beyond 2030, an additional 4.0T USD is scheduled to mature between 2031 and 2035.

Rolling 12M Interest Costs: As of September 30th, the U.S. government paid 1.22T USD of interest in the past 12 months, a +8% change from one year earlier.

Average Borrowing Cost Trend: The average interest rate on Total Interest-bearing Debt reached 3.31% (12M average), reflecting a +0.09 percentage point change versus prior year.

5Y Breakeven Inflation: fell (-6bps) to 2.29%.

10Y Breakeven Inflation: fell (-2bps) to 2.28%.

Issuance Volume of 10Y: In the last 3 months averaged 51.7B, decreased from 60.4B in the previous month.

Bid-to-Cover Ratio of 10Y: Latest 3-month average declined to 2.42 from 2.43, indicating weaker demand in recent auctions.

Real GDP (↑): for Q2 2025 rose to 23.77T.

Unemployment Rate (↑): for August 2025 rose to 4.30%.

Initial Jobless Claims (↓): for week ending Sep 20 fell to 218.00K.

Consumer Price Index (↑): for August 2025 rose to 323.36.

Federal Funds Rate (↓): fell to 4.22%.

Consumer Sentiment (↓): for August 2025 fell to 58.20%.

Retail Sales (↑): for August 2025 rose to 632.49B.

Durable Goods Orders (↑): for August 2025 rose to 312.06B.

30-Year Mortgage Rate (↓): fell to 6.27%.

15-Year Mortgage Rate (↓): fell to 5.52%.

Housing Starts (↓): for August 2025 fell to 1.31M.

Credit Card Interest Rate (↑): for August 2025 rose to 21.39%.

Money Market Funds (↑): for August 2025 rose to 2.22T.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (↑): rose to 6.60T.