Weekly Market Graphs

Equity Indexes: 5 out of 6 indexes rose this week, with Hong Kong – Hang Seng (+3.01%) leading the way.

Index Outliers: India - Nifty 50 (-0.72%) declined despite broader strength.

Sector Summary (1W): 7 out of 11 sectors fell this week, and Real Estate (-3.03%) was the worst performer.

Sector Outliers: Utilities (+3.01%), Financials (+1.10%), Energy (+0.33%), Technology (+0.30%) managed to gain despite the overall decline.

Yield Movements: Long-term yields rose, while short-end was little changed, with 20Y rising (+5.0bps) & 1M falling the most (-1.0bps).

Curve Shape: The curve steepened at the front end, with the positive 10Y–3M spread widening (+4.0bps) to 0.06%.

Key Spreads: Positive 10Y–2Y spread widening (+3.0bps) to 0.56%. Positive 10Y–3M spread widening (+4.0bps) to 0.06%.

FX Summary: All 5 major currencies depreciated against the USD this week, with the JPY retreating the most (-0.84%).

Strategy Performance: North America favored Momentum (+3.09%) the most, while Value (-5.82%) was the weakest.

Europe Summary: In Europe Momentum (+3.01%) returns were the highest & Investment (-1.71%) lagged the most.

Japan Summary: The strongest strategy in Japan was Quality (+3.02%), the drag came from Value (-4.25%).

Winners: Nat Gas topped the leaderboard last week (1W +6.33%). Current prices make S&P the best performer since three months (3M +19.50%). Copper has delivered the highest return since year start (YTD +38.46%).

Losers: Wheat posted the largest loss last week (1W -1.12%). Wheat has been the lowest returning asset over three months (3M -7.25%). Current prices make USD the weakest performer since year start (YTD -9.29%).

Yield and Coupon 10Y: If a 10Y U.S. Treasury bond were issued today with a market-aligned coupon of 4.500%, it would yield 4.46%.

Duration and Convexity 10Y: Its price sensitivity would reflect a modified duration of 8.2 years and convexity of 76.28.

Rate Sensitivity 10Y: This implies a price change of approximately +0.8% to -0.8% for a 0.1% (10 bps) shift in rates, based on current spot yields.

10Y–2Y Spread: Positive 10Y–2Y spread widening (+9bps) to 0.58%.

10Y–3M Spread: Positive 10Y–3M spread widening (+12bps) to 0.05%.

10Y Exposure Increase: Lev Fund led the 10Y exposure increases across 1W +15.1% and 1M +56.0%..

10Y Exposure Decrease: Dealer led 10Y exposure trim across 1W -43.7%, 1M -85.6%, 3M -94.5%..

Current Year Maturities: The U.S. has 7.0T USD of debt maturing in year 2025. With the following breakdown: Bills (<1Y): 79%, Notes (2–10Y): 18%, FRNs: 2%, TIPS: 1%, Bonds (20–30Y): 0%.

Next 5 Years Outlook: Between 2026 and 2030, 12.8T USD of debt is set to mature (about 2.6T per year). With the peak of 3.7T in 2026, where 84% is Notes (2–10Y).

Long-Term Maturities: Beyond 2030, an additional 3.6T USD is scheduled to mature between 2031 and 2035.

Rolling 12M Interest Costs: As of June 30th, the U.S. government paid 1.19T USD of interest in the past 12 months, a +8% change from one year earlier.

Average Borrowing Cost Trend: The average interest rate on Total Interest-bearing Debt reached 3.30% (12M average), reflecting a +0.19 percentage point change versus prior year.

5Y Breakeven Inflation: rose (+9bps) to 2.53%.

10Y Breakeven Inflation: rose (+6bps) to 2.43%.

Issuance Volume of 10Y: In the last 3 months averaged 46.7B, decreased from 47.3B in the previous month.

Bid-to-Cover Ratio of 10Y: Latest 3-month average declined to 2.58 from 2.60, indicating weaker demand in recent auctions.

Real GDP (↓): for Q1 2025 fell to 23.51T.

Unemployment Rate (↓): for June 2025 fell to 4.10%.

Initial Jobless Claims (↓): for week ending Jul 12 fell to 221.00K.

Consumer Price Index (↑): for June 2025 rose to 321.50.

Federal Funds Rate (→): was unchanged at 4.33%.

Consumer Sentiment (→): for May 2025 was unchanged at 52.20%.

Retail Sales (↑): for June 2025 rose to 621.37B.

Durable Goods Orders (↑): for May 2025 rose to 343.57B.

30-Year Mortgage Rate (↑): rose to 6.75%.

15-Year Mortgage Rate (↑): rose to 5.92%.

Housing Starts (↓): for May 2025 fell to 1.26M.

Credit Card Interest Rate (↓): for May 2025 fell to 21.16%.

Money Market Funds (↑): for May 2025 rose to 2.17T.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (↓): fell to 6.66T.