Weekly Market Graphs

Index Overview: 5 out of 6 indexes declined this week, with India – Nifty 50 (-2.54%) falling the most. US (S&P 500) — reached 28th ATH this year on Thursday.

Index Outliers: US - S&P 500 (+0.04%) managed to gain despite the overall decline.

Last Week Dynamic: 7 out of 11 sectors fell this week, and Industrials (-1.28%) was the worst performer.

Outliers: Energy (+2.36%), Communication Services (+1.11%), Technology (+0.58%), Basic Materials (+0.04%) managed to gain despite the overall decline.

Yields Overview: Yields moved unevenly across the curve, with 30Y rising (+3.0bps) & 2Y falling the most (-14.0bps).

Curve Shape: The curve steepened at the long end, with the positive 30Y–3Y spread widening (+13.0bps) to 1.34%.

Key Spreads: Positive 10Y–2Y spread widening (+9.0bps) to 0.64%. Positive 10Y–3M spread widening (+1.0bps) to 0.00%.

FX Overview: 3 out of 5 major currencies slipped against the USD this week, as the EUR saw the steepest drop (-0.32%).

Outliers: AUD (+0.79%), CAD (+0.65%) appreciated despite widespread softness.

North America Summary: North America favored Quality (+1.13%) the most, while Investment (-2.80%) was the weakest.

Europe Summary: In Europe Value (+2.73%) returns were the highest & Quality (-1.58%) lagged the most.

Japan Summary: The strongest strategy in Japan was Value (+4.71%), the drag came from Quality (-2.99%).

Winners: Nat Gas topped the leaderboard last week (1W +8.82%). Current prices make S&P the best performer since three months (3M +9.41%). Gold has delivered the highest return since year start (YTD +33.18%).

Losers: Brent posted the largest loss last week (1W -0.53%). Nat Gas has posted the worst results for both three months (3M -13.05%) and year start (YTD -17.05%).

10Y Yield & Coupon: If a 10Y U.S. Treasury bond were issued today with a market-aligned coupon of 4.250%, it would yield 4.22%.

10Y Duration and Convexity: Its price sensitivity would reflect a modified duration of 8.3 years and convexity of 77.59.

10Y Rate Sensitivity: This implies a price change of approximately +0.8% to -0.8% for a 0.1% (10 bps) shift in rates, based on current spot yields.

10Y–2Y Spread: Positive 10Y–2Y spread widening (+2bps) to 0.60%.

10Y–3M Spread: Negative 10Y–3M spread widening (-3bps) to -0.04%.

10Y Exposure Increase: Asset Manager led the 10Y exposure increases across 1W +9.1% and 1M +27.7%..

10Y Exposure Decrease: Dealer led 10Y exposure trim across 1W -20.9% and 3M -33.1%..

Current Year Maturities: The U.S. has 6.5T USD of debt maturing in year 2025. With the following breakdown: Bills (<1Y): 81%, Notes (2–10Y): 17%, FRNs: 1%, TIPS: 1%, Bonds (20–30Y): 0%.

Next 5 Years Outlook: Between 2026 and 2030, 13.4T USD of debt is set to mature (about 2.7T per year). With the peak of 4.2T in 2026, where 81% is Notes (2–10Y).

Long-Term Maturities: Beyond 2030, an additional 3.8T USD is scheduled to mature between 2031 and 2035.

Rolling 12M Interest Costs: As of July 31st, the U.S. government paid 1.19T USD of interest in the past 12 months, a +8% change from one year earlier.

Average Borrowing Cost Trend: The average interest rate on Total Interest-bearing Debt reached 3.30% (12M average), reflecting a +0.15 percentage point change versus prior year.

5Y Breakeven Inflation: fell (-2bps) to 2.47%.

10Y Breakeven Inflation: fell (+0bps) to 2.41%.

Issuance Volume of 10Y: In the last 3 months averaged 54.0B, decreased from 60.2B in the previous month.

Bid-to-Cover Ratio of 10Y: Latest 3-month average declined to 2.46 from 2.50, indicating weaker demand in recent auctions.

Real GDP (↑): for Q2 2025 rose to 23.70T.

Unemployment Rate (↑): for July 2025 rose to 4.20%.

Initial Jobless Claims (↓): for week ending Aug 23 fell to 229.00K.

Consumer Price Index (↑): for July 2025 rose to 322.13.

Federal Funds Rate (→): was unchanged at 4.33%.

Consumer Sentiment (↑): for July 2025 rose to 61.70%.

Retail Sales (↑): for July 2025 rose to 627.98B.

Durable Goods Orders (↓): for July 2025 fell to 302.81B.

30-Year Mortgage Rate (↓): fell to 6.56%.

15-Year Mortgage Rate (→): was unchanged at 5.69%.

Housing Starts (↑): for July 2025 rose to 1.43M.

Credit Card Interest Rate (↓): for May 2025 fell to 21.16%.

Money Market Funds (↑): for July 2025 rose to 2.19T.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (↓): fell to 6.60T.